Friday, October 31, 2008

Week 9 NFL Predictions

Last Week: 13-13-2 overall (5-7-2 spreads, 8-6 over-unders)
Overall: 114-101-6 (60-53-4 spreads, 54-58-2 over-unders)

Odds taken from Yahoo! Sports NFL Odds Page

Baltimore +2 at Cleveland
under 37 points

Tampa Bay -9 at Kansas City
under 36.5

NY Jets +6 at Buffalo
under 41

Arizona -2.5 at St. Louis
over 48

Chicago -13 vs. Detroit
under 43.5

Minnesota -4.5 vs. Houston
under 47

Tennessee -4 vs. Green Bay
under 41

Jacksonville -7.5 at Cincinnati
over 39.5

Denver -3.5 at Miami
under 50

Dallas +9 at NY Giants
under 41

Philadelphia -6.5 at Seattle
under 42.5

Oakland +2.5 vs. Atlanta
under 41.5
(woof woof)

Indianapolis -6 vs. New England
over 44

Washington -2 vs. Pittsburgh
over 36.5

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Let's Go Knicks

Oops


Friday, October 24, 2008

Week 8 NFL Predictions

Last Week: 10-17-1 overall (8-6 spreads, 2-11-1 over-unders)
Overall: 101-98-4 (55-46-2 spreads, 46-52-2 over-unders)

Odds Taken from Yahoo! Sports NFL Odds Page

Philadelphia -9 vs. Atlanta
over 45 poitns

NY Jets -12.5 vs. Kansas City
over 38

New England -7 vs. St. Louis
under 43.5

Buffalo -1.5 at Miami
under 42.5

Baltimore -7 vs. Oakland
under 36

Washington -7.5 at Detroit
over 42

Carolina -4 vs. Arizona
over 43.5

San Diego -3 at New Orleans
under 46

Tampa Bay -2 at Dallas
under 40.5

Houston -9.5 vs. Cincinnati
under 45

Jacksonville -7 vs. Cleveland
under 42

Pittsburgh -2.5 vs. NY Giants
over 42

San Francisco -5 vs. Seattle
under 50.5

Tennessee -4 vs. Indianapolis
under 41

Thursday, October 23, 2008

How Far They Have To Go...

Jayson Stark at ESPN.com posted an article this morning about how dominant Phillies' pitcher Cole Hamels has been this entire post-season, including a seven inning, five strikeout performance last night to win game one of the World Series.  By winning his fourth start in a single post season, Hamels joined the likes of Orel Hershisher, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, David Wells and a few others (who will remain unnamed for purely spiteful reasons) to accomplish that feat.  Though Randy Johnson and Francisco Rodriguez have each earned five wins in a single post season, neither won five post season starts, and if the World Series goes to a game five, where Hamels would pitch, he could become the first pitcher in Major League Baseball history to do just that.

So many baseball writers and pundits (whatever pundits really are) use wins as a statistical measuring point, but then quickly downplay it's significance in light of ERA (earned run average), BAA (batting average against) and WHIP (walks and hits per inning).  You often see this argument during discussions about who should win the Cy Young when a pitcher who went 20-7 with a 4.10 ERA is taken out of consideration because of the high ERA, which is (apprently) grossly more important than the fact that in twenty games over the course of a season he pitched well enough to allow his team to win.

No, this is in no way a look back at the belief that Chien-Ming Wang was robbed of a Cy Young award in 2006 and 2007 because he won 19 games in each of them (the most of any pitcher in baseball over that time).  While I do agree that using wins as a statistical measuring point for a single season is a silly exercise, I think it is vitally important when measuring a player's career.  One of the great aspects of baseball is that single-season and career records that were made almost a century ago are still being chased today.  Babe Ruth hit 60 homeruns in 1927; Roger Maris one-upped him in 1961; Mark McGwire hit 70 in 1998; and Barry Bonds reached 73 in 2001.  In no other professional sport are these records as sacred and in no other sport are they still chased after with such fanfare and zeal.

There are perhaps three career milestones that are celebrated in baseball like no other in sports:

3,000 hits
500 homeruns
300 wins

The homerun mark may be increased in time, but 3,000 hits will always remain.  There are a number of current players who are in site of 3,000 (with high powered binoculars), including Yankee teammates Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, and those marks will be followed and celebrated when/if they occur.  No one doubts that we will see another player with 3,000 career hits.

300 career wins?  That's another story.  I have previously written about how I do believe there will be another pitcher who finishes his career with 300 wins, although I explain that it's highly unlikely and it certainly won't be multiple pitchers going after the mark.  My post itself was in response to an article by ESPN's Tim Kurkjian, who argued that Tom Glavine (who had just reached 300) could be the last pitcher in Major League history to accomplish that feat.  I used a bunch of VERY basic statistics comparing win totals and age of current young pitchers to their older contemporaries.  One note to make is that Randy Johnson finished this season with 295 wins and is fully expected to return until he reaches 300, so we'll consider everyone except the Giant Mullet.

The point of this post is not to try again to guess who might reach 300; quite the opposite actually.  I wanted to (kind of ) agree with Kurkjian and highlight some of baseball's best pitchers and note just how far away from 300 they are.  I am picking and choosing, obviously, but I wanted to show a list of pitchers who many (here it is again) writers and pundits consider to be at the top of the game right now:

Roy Halladay - 131
Roy Oswalt - 129
CC Sabathia - 117
Johan Santana - 109
Carlos Zambrano - 96
Josh Beckett - 89
Brandon Webb - 87
Jake Peavy - 86
Ben Sheets - 86
Scott Kazmir - 47
Victor Zambrano - 45 (sorry, I had to after Kazmir)
Cole Hamels - 38

Many could argue that this list contains (other than Victor Zambrano, of course) the best pitchers in Major League Baseball right now; and none of them are even half-way to 300.  Now it should also be noted that some of these guys are very young and have long careers ahead of them.  Depending on their teams, they can theoretically compete for another decade at least, with 15 wins in each season (the Mike Mussina method, if you will).  That gets most of them at least over 200 and some extremely close to 300.  Like I said, it's difficult, but not impossible.

In the end, this is simply a friendly reminder than when we're talking about the best pitchers in baseball today, it hardly means they are automatically destined for Cooperstown.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Week 7 NFL Predictions

Last Week: 17-11 overall (9-5 spreads, 8-6 over-unders)
Overall: 91-80-3 (47-39-2 spreads, 44-41-1 over-unders)

Odds taken from Yahoo! Sports NFL Live Odds page

NY Giants -10.5 vs. San Francisco
over 46.5 points

Pittsburgh -9.5 at Cincinnati
over 35.5

Kansas City +9 vs. Tennessee
under 35
(woof woof)

Chicago -3 vs. Minnesota
under 37.5

Buffalo -1 vs. San Diego
under 44.5

New Orleans +3 at Carolina
over 44.5

Dallas -7 at St. Louis
under 44

Baltimore +3 at Miami
under 36.5

Detroit +9.5 at Houston
under 46.5

NY Jets -3.5 at Oakland
over 41

Green Bay +2 vs. Indianapolis
under 47
(woof woof)

Cleveland +7 at Washington
over 42

Tampa Bay -10.5 vs. Seattle
over 38

Denver +3 at New England
over 48

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Five Years Ago Today


Where Does Manny Go Now?

There has been a ton written about who will/should/needs to sign Manny Ramirez during the off-season, now that his has officially begun with the Phillies' victory last night in Game 5 of the NLCS, and the one and only factor that must be considered is money.  Manny doesn't care where he plays, he just wants to make sure he gets paid...handsomely.
Manny is the most prolific right handed hitter in the game today and when he feels like playing, he must be mentioned in the top ten of the Game's (active) best.  Nevertheless, it's the issue of his character and determination that many have questioned ever since he demanded his removal from Boston.  Scads of people have blamed his agent Scott Boras for his eventual ouster from the Red Socks, which very well could be true, but it was obvious the Red Socks didn't want to pick up his $20 million option for 2009, so now Manny gets to play where he wants...or at least where he can get paid the most.
With that in mind, the teams that I think can/will compete for Manny are:

New York Yankees
New York Mets
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Chicago White Sox
Chicago Cubs

Some of the teams on this list are only on because they can "afford" Manny.  I don't think the Cubs will go after him, mostly because with the pending sale of the franchise, no one is going to authorize spending $100 million on a player.  Plus, Alfonso Soriano in left field has been enough of an adventure for the team.
The Dodgers clearly must consider bringing Manny back after the unbelievable numbers he put up both in the regular season and the post-season.  Manny carried this team to the NLCS and there are plenty of fans who want to see #99 back.
I specifically left the Boston Red Socks off the list because I don't think they can sink down and get Manny back.  With the amount of money that Manny will demand (and probably eventually get), the Red Socks have made it clear that they are out.  Jason Bay in left field will have to do for now, as long as they finally accept that he isn't as good as Manny.  Bay has certainly been better than expected, but any Red Socks fan that tries to say he's as good as Manny is simply smoking crack.
Both New York teams will likely put in an offer, only because he's the best hitter on the market this off-season and the Yankees and Mets both need an upgrade in left field.  Manny is from New York, growing up only steps from Yankee Stadium (so they say), which may not be a good thing when looking at his past antics.
I listed the Rangers because of two reasons: 1. they gave Alex Rodriguez the biggest contract in history (at the time), so they have proven they are willing to spend; and 2. they tried to trade Rodriguez for Manny after the 2003 season, but the trade was eventually blocked by the MLB Players' Association because Rodriguez would have taken a pay cut.  This shows that the Rangers had an interest in Manny at one time, although it very well could have been simply an interest in getting rid of Rodriguez.
The Seattle Mariners and the San Francisco Giants are the teams left and I think Manny could end up at any one of these two destinations. 
The Mariners have previously tried to bring in free agents to help their hitters to the next level (see Beltre, Adrian and Sexson, Richie) but none have worked out for them since they signed Ichiro.  But why not try for Manny?  He has a much longer track record than Beltre and Sexson did when they were brought in and with Ichiro, Jose Lopez and Raul Ibanez ahead of him, Manny should continue to knock in a ton of runs.  The ballpark is bigger than most, but few of Manny's home runs land just over the wall; the guy crushes every ball he hits.
San Francisco may be a little hard pressed to justify spending that much money after the Barry Zito debacle, but you have to realize that paying $100 million for a hitter of Manny's capacity is clearly a better decision than giving Zito $126 million to play every five days.  The Giants finished last season with a 72-90 record and Bengie Molina led them in homeruns with 16; only five players finished in double digits and three of them ended the season with 10.  Molina also led them in RBI with 95 (a shocking number when I saw it) and Aaron Rowand was second with 70.  If there is any team that could use Manny Ramirez's bat in the lineup, it's the San Francisco Giants.
There will be plenty of discussion over the coming months about where Manny lands, but I think the best two choices, for the teams and for Manny (or at least his wallet) are the Seattle Mariners and the San Francisco Giants.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Week 6 Football Predictions

Last Week: 12-12-2 (5-6-2 spreads, 7-6 over-unders)
Overall: 74-69-3 (38-34-2 spreads, 36-35-1 over-unders)

Odds taken from Yahoo! Sports NFL Live Odds page

Tampa Bay -1 vs. Carolina
under 36.5 points

Washington -13.5 vs. St.Louis
over 44

NY Jets -5.5 vs. Cincinnati
under 44.5

New Orleans -7 vs. Oakland
under 47

Houston -3 vs. Miami
under 44.5

Atlanta +3 vs. Chicago
under 43.5
(woof woof)

Detroit +13 at Minnesota
under 45.5

Baltimore +4 at Indianapolis
under 38.5

Jacksonville +3.5 at Denver
under 48.5

San Francisco +5 vs. Philadelphia
under 42.5

Dallas -5 at Arizona
under 50.5

Green Bay +1.5 at Seattle
over 46

San Diego -5 vs. New England
over 44.5

Cleveland +9 vs. NY Giants
over 43

Survivor Picks:
Week One: New England
Week Two: Tampa Bay
Week Three: Buffalo
Week Four: Dallas (OUT)
Week Five (Why not keep going?): Carolina
Week Six: Washington

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

The Boo Market

Given the unfortunate knee injury to Tiger Woods, golf's biggest star since Jack Nicklaus, the PGA and its sponsor companies have battled to redefine themselves to continue catering to fans who actively follow golf and see how its premier player performed each week.  With specific tournaments struggling if Woods decides not to play, coupled with lower television ratings when he either does not play or is not winning, it is clear why sponsors are cautious when entering into sponsorship agreements with specific players.  Like many other sports, the players are only valuable when they are both on the course, and more importantly, winning on it.  With golf's individual competition, unlike a team sport such as baseball or football, choosing the right player to represent your brand is increasingly important.

 

The difficultly with golf is that many fans who do not actively watch or follow the PGA tend to lump all of the active players within a single standard: upper-class, country club members who attended Ivy League schools and were able to play on some of America's finest courses to hone their skills for their eventual entry into the PGA, where they would play golf as their job, cashing endorsement checks from high-end clothing companies and accessory makers such as Lacoste and Rolex, luxury car makers like Lexus and Buick, or financial services companies such as the Royal Bank of Scotland or Citigroup.  Those fans who are active followers of the PGA have grown accustomed to the players and understand that if Woods is not involved, it may not be worth watching.

 

The goal for the PGA, its players, and its sponsors must then be to market to those who are not currently active watchers of golf, and who may learn to accept and appreciate the game as it is played without Tiger Woods.  Given the recent success of the United States Ryder Cup team, and specifically with Ryder Cup rookie Boo Weekley, who appears to be more in line with the average NASCAR fan than the average PGA fan, there is an obvious link that Weekley could build to bridge the gap between these two fan bases.

 

Weekley, who is known to be a NASCAR fan, is not the prototypical golfer described above.  Growing up in northern Florida, he attended Abraham Baldwin Agricultural College for one year before dropping out, and played on the Golf mini-tours for five years before qualifying for the PGA Tour in 2002.  Weekley lost his card that same year and began playing on the Nationwide Tour, which he was a member of between 2003 and 2006, after which he again qualified for the PGA Tour and won his first tournament at the Verizon Heritage in April 2007.  After winning the tournament again in 2008, Weekley made enough of an impression to be named as a "Captain's Pick" for the 2008 Ryder Cup, where his fame skyrocketed thanks to his folksy demeanor, his obvious joy on the golf course, and of course, his Happy Gilmore-dance on the final day, solidifying his spot among the more popular players on the Tour.

 

Using his new-found fame and his connection to NASCAR, Weekley could be used to bring those exclusive fans of stock-car racing over to the game golf.  From Weekley's point of view, endorsement deals with Outback Steakhouses and John Deere, two current PGA sponsors that also have sponsorship deals with NASCAR, would be a perfect starting point.  Because of the cross-over of both brands, Weekley would bring legitimacy to the products from the NASCAR fan's point of view and would allow them a player to follow on the PGA Tour who is increasingly more like them than the likes of Vijay Singh, Padraig Harrington or Camilo Villegas.

 

Weekley's ability to cross-over the NASCAR and PGA boundaries enables a marketing opportunity unseen in other professional sports in the United States, due to the vast number of "NASCAR-only" sports fans who do not see a bridge between their favorite driver(s) and specific players in the NBA, NFL, MLB or NHL.  With this unique situation, spearheaded by Outback Steakhouses and John Deere, Boo Weekley will be able to build that bridge.

Friday, October 03, 2008

Bye Week Picture of Today


Week 5 Football Predictions

Last Week: (9-4 spreads, 7-5-1 over-unders)
Overall: 55-54 (33-28 spreads, 29-31-1 over-unders)

Odds taken from Yahoo! Sports NFL Live Odds page

Buffalo + 1 at Arizona
under 44.5 points

Carolina -9.5 vs. Kansas City
over 38.5

Chicago -3.5 at Detroit
under 44.5

Dallas -17 vs. Cincinnati
over 44

Denver -3 vs. Tampa Bay
under 48

Houston +3 vs. Indianapolis
under 47
(woof woof)

Jacksonville -4 vs. Pittsburgh
over 36

New England -3 at San Francisco
over 41 points

NY Giants -7 vs. Seattle
over 43.5

Washington +6 at Philadelphia
over 42.5

San Diego -6.5 vs. Miami
under 45

Tennessee -3 at Baltimore
over 33.5

New Orleans -3 vs. Minnesota
under 46.5

Packers - Falcons
Off The Board

Survivor Picks:
Week One: New England
Week Two: Tampa Bay
Week Three: Buffalo
Week Four: Dallas (OUT)
Week Five (Why not keep going?): Carolina